Proleter Novi SAD 2–2 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Proleter Novi SAD

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

12/1/2018

Super Liga · Round 18Stadion Karađorđe (Novi Sad)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

Proleter Novi SAD43%

×Draw28%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Proleter Novi SADExpected goals in this matchFK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.99

Proleter Novi SAD

1.29

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

0.99

Proleter Novi SAD creates 30% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 145 away

1.04

creates per match

0.97

1.01

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Proleter Novi SAD

1.04

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

0.97

allows per match

Proleter Novi SAD

1.01

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Proleter Novi SAD+0.00on par

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Proleter Novi SAD ↓

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Proleter Novi SAD or draw

71%

Proleter Novi SAD or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

72%

Draw or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

57%

Winning margin

Proleter Novi SAD wins by 2+

20%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Proleter Novi SAD 1+ goals

72%

Proleter Novi SAD 2+ goals

37%

Proleter Novi SAD 3+ goals

14%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1+ goals

63%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2+ goals

26%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Proleter Novi SAD (draw refunded)

60%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Proleter Novi SAD at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.01 · 70 matches

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Proleter Novi SAD attack 1.04 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.29

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 0.97 + Proleter Novi SAD defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Proleter Novi SAD scores more

43%

level

28%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV scores more

29%

Proleter Novi SAD at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Proleter Novi SAD will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff