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Prishtina vs Malisheva — Superliga 2019

Prishtina
Prishtina
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Malisheva
Malisheva
2/21/2024SuperligaSuperliga · Round 21Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 91+ matches

Prishtina45%
×Draw26%
Malisheva29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prishtina
1.46
Malisheva
1.12

Prishtina creates 30% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 91 away

creates per match

Prishtina
1.65
Malisheva
1.31

allows per match

Prishtina
0.93
Malisheva
1.27

finishing

Prishtina+0.00on par
Malisheva+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prishtina ↓

Malisheva →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Prishtina or draw
71%
Prishtina or Malisheva
74%
Draw or Malisheva
55%

Winning margin

Prishtina wins by 2+
22%
Malisheva wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Prishtina 1+ goals
77%
Prishtina 2+ goals
43%
Prishtina 3+ goals
18%
Malisheva 1+ goals
67%
Malisheva 2+ goals
31%
Malisheva 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Prishtina (draw refunded)
61%
Malisheva (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prishtina at home — creates 1.65, concedes 0.93 · 125 matches

Malisheva away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.27 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prishtina attack 1.65 + Malisheva defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.46

Malisheva attack 1.31 + Prishtina defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Prishtina scores more
45%
level
26%
Malisheva scores more
29%

Prishtina at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Prishtina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Prishtina vs Malisheva

Malisheva beat Prishtina 2-0 in Superliga on February 21, 2024.

The match was played at Stadiumi Sami Kelmendi in Lipjan.