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Primorac Biograd vs RNK Split — Third NL - Jug 2019

Primorac Biograd
Primorac Biograd
FT
1 – 3
RNK Split
RNK Split
10/26/2019Third NL - JugThird NL - Jug · South - 10Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Primorac Biograd47%
×Draw24%
RNK Split28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Primorac Biograd
1.67
RNK Split
1.24

Primorac Biograd creates 35% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 57 away

creates per match

Primorac Biograd
1.72
RNK Split
1.23

allows per match

Primorac Biograd
1.25
RNK Split
1.63

finishing

Primorac Biograd+0.00on par
RNK Split+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Primorac Biograd ↓

RNK Split →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Primorac Biograd or draw
72%
Primorac Biograd or RNK Split
76%
Draw or RNK Split
53%

Winning margin

Primorac Biograd wins by 2+
25%
RNK Split wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Primorac Biograd 1+ goals
81%
Primorac Biograd 2+ goals
50%
Primorac Biograd 3+ goals
23%
RNK Split 1+ goals
71%
RNK Split 2+ goals
35%
RNK Split 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Primorac Biograd (draw refunded)
62%
RNK Split (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Primorac Biograd at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.25 · 102 matches

RNK Split away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.63 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Primorac Biograd attack 1.72 + RNK Split defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.67

RNK Split attack 1.23 + Primorac Biograd defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Primorac Biograd scores more
47%
level
24%
RNK Split scores more
28%

Primorac Biograd at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Primorac Biograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third NL - Jug: Primorac Biograd 1–3 RNK Split

RNK Split beat Primorac Biograd 3-1 in Third NL - Jug on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski stadion Kazimir i Silvio in Biograd na Moru.