Příbram 1–2 Plzen: Result & Stats | Czech Liga

Příbram

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Plzen

M. Alvir 34'

J. Kopic 81'

M. Krmenčík 21'

8/31/2019

Czech Liga · Round 8Energon Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Příbram25%

×Draw27%

Plzen48%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PříbramExpected goals in this matchPlzen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.44

Příbram

0.97

Plzen

1.44

Plzen creates 48% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 119 away

0.83

creates per match

1.48

1.40

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Příbram

0.83

Plzen

1.48

allows per match

Příbram

1.40

Plzen

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Příbram+0.00on par

Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram ↓

Plzen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Příbram or draw

52%

Příbram or Plzen

73%

Draw or Plzen

75%

Winning margin

Příbram wins by 2+

9%

Plzen wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Příbram 1+ goals

62%

Příbram 2+ goals

25%

Příbram 3+ goals

7%

Plzen 1+ goals

76%

Plzen 2+ goals

42%

Plzen 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Příbram (draw refunded)

35%

Plzen (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram at home — creates 0.83, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram attack 0.83 + Plzen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.97

Plzen attack 1.48 + Příbram defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Příbram scores more

25%

level

27%

Plzen scores more

48%

Plzen at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

21'

34'

45'

56'

59'

70'

A. Hloušek← J. Kovařík

71'

Karel Soldat

73'

Radim Řezník

76'

Jan Rezek

79'

T. Chorý← M. Krmenčík

81'

85'

87'

88'

88'

89'

S. Dramé← M. Cmiljanović

90'

Aleš Hruška

90'

David Limberský

90'

L. Pernica← A. Čermák

Statistics

PříbramPlzen

Overview

1Corners4

Discipline

4Yellow Cards6

1Red Cards0

Match Recap: Příbram vs Plzen

Plzen beat Příbram 2-1 in Czech Liga on August 31, 2019.

Goals: M. Krmenčík (21'), M. Alvir (34'), J. Kopic (81').

The match was played at Energon Aréna in Příbram.

Příbram vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Match Recap: Příbram vs Plzen