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Příbram U19 vs Sigma Olomouc U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Příbram U19
Příbram U19
CANC
09:00
Sigma Olomouc U19
Sigma Olomouc U19
4/17/20211. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 12Na Litavce UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Příbram U1918%
×Draw19%
Sigma Olomouc U1963%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Příbram U19
1.19
Sigma Olomouc U19
2.35

Sigma Olomouc U19 creates 97% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 79 away

creates per match

Příbram U19
0.88
Sigma Olomouc U19
1.57

allows per match

Příbram U19
3.12
Sigma Olomouc U19
1.49

finishing

Příbram U19+0.00on par
Sigma Olomouc U19+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Příbram U19 ↓

Sigma Olomouc U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–28%
0–36%
0–44%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–210%
1–38%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
47%53%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Příbram U19 or draw
37%
Příbram U19 or Sigma Olomouc U19
81%
Draw or Sigma Olomouc U19
82%

Winning margin

Příbram U19 wins by 2+
7%
Sigma Olomouc U19 wins by 2+
41%

Team goals

Příbram U19 1+ goals
70%
Příbram U19 2+ goals
33%
Příbram U19 3+ goals
12%
Sigma Olomouc U19 1+ goals
90%
Sigma Olomouc U19 2+ goals
68%
Sigma Olomouc U19 3+ goals
41%

Draw no bet

Příbram U19 (draw refunded)
22%
Sigma Olomouc U19 (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Příbram U19 at home — creates 0.88, concedes 3.12 · 34 matches

Sigma Olomouc U19 away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.49 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Příbram U19 attack 0.88 + Sigma Olomouc U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.19

Sigma Olomouc U19 attack 1.57 + Příbram U19 defence 3.12 → ÷2 → 2.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Příbram U19 scores more
18%
level
19%
Sigma Olomouc U19 scores more
63%

Sigma Olomouc U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Sigma Olomouc U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Příbram U19 face Sigma Olomouc U19 (1. Liga U19)

1. Liga U19 returns with Příbram U19 hosting Sigma Olomouc U19. Match starts April 17, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Příbram U19 host Sigma Olomouc U19 at Na Litavce UMT.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.