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Preston vs West Brom — Championship 2025

Preston
Preston
Preview
14:00
West Brom
West Brom
10/24/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 12Deepdale
48%
West Brom
model favours
24%28%48%

Preston score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

0–1
likely score
62%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Preston24%
×Draw28%
West Brom48%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
0.87
West Brom
1.34

West Brom creates 54% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 7 away

creates per match

Preston
0.86
West Brom
1.48

allows per match

Preston
1.21
West Brom
0.88

finishing

Preston+0.21scores more
West Brom-0.62scores less

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–115%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Preston or draw
52%
Preston or West Brom
72%
Draw or West Brom
76%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
8%
West Brom wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
58%
Preston 2+ goals
22%
Preston 3+ goals
6%
West Brom 1+ goals
74%
West Brom 2+ goals
39%
West Brom 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
34%
West Brom (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 15 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.48, concedes 0.88 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 0.86 + West Brom defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.87

West Brom attack 1.48 + Preston defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Preston scores more
24%
level
28%
West Brom scores more
48%

West Brom at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • West Brom score first in only 27% of matches
  • Both teams score in 76% of Preston’s matches
  • West Brom fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Preston
Balanced
West Brom
Possession-dominant
46%Possession56%
71%Pass accuracy82%
10.1Shots13.9
1.00xGBiggest gap1.51
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PrestonWest Brom

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Preston
WLWL
Brom
WLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preston face West Brom (Championship)

Championship returns with Preston hosting West Brom. Match starts October 24, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Preston host West Brom at Deepdale.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.