Preston 0–4 West Brom: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

West Brom

K. Bartley 87'

M. Phillips 62'

A. Mowatt 29'

D. Furlong 4'

9/30/2023

Championship · Round 9Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 54+ matches

Preston36%

×Draw28%

West Brom35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.16

Preston

1.18

West Brom

1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 54 away

1.14

creates per match

1.14

1.18

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Preston

1.14

West Brom

1.14

allows per match

Preston

1.18

West Brom

1.22

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.05on par

finishing

Preston+0.06on par

West Brom-0.05on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw

65%

Preston or West Brom

72%

Draw or West Brom

64%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

15%

West Brom wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

69%

Preston 2+ goals

33%

Preston 3+ goals

12%

West Brom 1+ goals

69%

West Brom 2+ goals

32%

West Brom 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

51%

West Brom (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.18 · 61 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.22 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + West Brom defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.18

West Brom attack 1.14 + Preston defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Preston scores more

36%

level

28%

West Brom scores more

35%

Preston at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

A. Mowatt

West Brom · M

8.3

Match Events

4'

D. Furlong↳ M. Phillips

18'

29'

35'

46'

62'

M. Phillips↳ J. Swift

63'

B. Whiteman← R. Ledson

64'

W. Keane← M. Osmajić

64'

M. Frøkjær-Jensen← D. Holmes

66'

J. Molumby← O. Yokuşlu

66'

J. Sarmiento← G. Diangana

78'

N. Chalobah← J. Swift

78'

C. Townsend← E. Pieters

81'

Brad Potts

85'

Pipa← M. Phillips

87'

Andrew Hughes

87'

K. Bartley↳ J. Wallace

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonWest

Overview

54%Possession46%

5Total Shots19

0.35Expected Goals (xG)1.31

2Corners6

12Fouls5

Shots

5Total Shots19

1On Target6

2Off Target7

2Blocked6

3Inside Box12

2Outside Box7

Passing

54%Possession46%

458Total Passes386

335Accurate Passes279

73%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls5

3Yellow Cards1

4Offsides1