Preston 1–0 West Brom: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

West Brom

E. Riis 7'

10/5/2022

Championship · Round 13Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Preston37%

×Draw28%

West Brom36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.17

Preston

1.19

West Brom

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 61 home / 55 away

1.14

creates per match

1.15

1.18

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Preston

1.14

West Brom

1.15

allows per match

Preston

1.18

West Brom

1.23

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.04on par

finishing

Preston+0.06on par

West Brom-0.04on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw

64%

Preston or West Brom

72%

Draw or West Brom

63%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

15%

West Brom wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

70%

Preston 2+ goals

33%

Preston 3+ goals

12%

West Brom 1+ goals

69%

West Brom 2+ goals

33%

West Brom 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

51%

West Brom (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.18 · 61 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + West Brom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

West Brom attack 1.15 + Preston defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Preston scores more

37%

level

28%

West Brom scores more

36%

Preston at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

F. Woodman

Preston · G

8.3

Match Events

7'

E. Riis↳ Álvaro Fernández

52'

Benjamin Whiteman

58'

J. Livermore← O. Yokuşlu

58'

T. Rogić← J. Molumby

68'

B. Potts← A. Browne

72'

B. Thomas-Asante← K. Ahearne-Grant

74'

R. Ledson← R. Brady

74'

B. Woodburn← S. Maguire

74'

M. Phillips← J. Swift

84'

Grady Diangana

85'

T. Parrott← E. Riis

90+4'

Jordan Storey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonWest

Overview

34%Possession66%

9Total Shots18

2Corners10

9Fouls3

Shots

9Total Shots18

4On Target5

3Off Target7

2Blocked6

6Inside Box8

3Outside Box10

Passing

34%Possession66%

301Total Passes561

211Accurate Passes467

70%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

5Saves3

Discipline

9Fouls3

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides2