Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Preston vs West Brom — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
West Brom
West Brom
B. Whiteman 26'
M. Phillips 45+2'
9/18/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 56+ matches

Preston37%
×Draw28%
West Brom35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.19
West Brom
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 56 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
West Brom
1.15

allows per match

Preston
1.17
West Brom
1.23

finishing

Preston+0.07on par
West Brom-0.02on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw
65%
Preston or West Brom
72%
Draw or West Brom
63%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
16%
West Brom wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
70%
Preston 2+ goals
33%
Preston 3+ goals
12%
West Brom 1+ goals
69%
West Brom 2+ goals
32%
West Brom 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
51%
West Brom (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + West Brom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.19

West Brom attack 1.15 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Preston scores more
37%
level
28%
West Brom scores more
35%

Preston at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18
R. LedsonPrestonPreston · M
7.3

Match Events

4'
Sepp van den Berg
26'
B. Whiteman↳ E. Riis
45+2'
M. Phillips
63'
K. Ahearne-Grant← G. Diangana
65'
C. Wickham← S. Maguire
65'
A. McCann← B. Whiteman
69'
C. Robinson← M. Phillips
76'
Kyle Bartley
83'
J. Murphy← E. Riis

Possession

39%Preston

Shots

8Preston

Pass accuracy

44%Preston

Statistics

PrestonWest
Overview
39%Possession61%
8Total Shots12
3Corners10
10Fouls12
Shots
8Total Shots12
2On Target3
2Off Target5
4Blocked4
7Inside Box8
1Outside Box4
Passing
39%Possession61%
197Total Passes288
92Accurate Passes174
47%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls12
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Preston vs West Brom

Preston and West Brom drew 1-1 in Championship on September 18, 2021.

Goals: B. Whiteman (26'), M. Phillips (45+2').

West Brom controlled possession (61%) and registered 12 shots to 8.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.