Preston 2–3 West Brom: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

West Brom

9/29/2018

Championship · Round 10Deepdale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Preston33%

×Draw28%

West Brom39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchWest Brom

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.23

Preston

1.11

West Brom

1.23

West Brom creates 11% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 40 away

1.01

creates per match

1.19

1.28

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Preston

1.01

West Brom

1.19

allows per match

Preston

1.28

West Brom

1.21

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Preston+0.19scores more

West Brom-0.06on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

West Brom →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw

61%

Preston or West Brom

72%

Draw or West Brom

67%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

13%

West Brom wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

67%

Preston 2+ goals

30%

Preston 3+ goals

10%

West Brom 1+ goals

71%

West Brom 2+ goals

35%

West Brom 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

46%

West Brom (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.28 · 40 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.21 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.01 + West Brom defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.11

West Brom attack 1.19 + Preston defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston scores more

33%

level

28%

West Brom scores more

39%

West Brom at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff