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Preston vs Watford — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
1 – 5
HT: 1 – 1
Watford
Watford
12/16/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 22Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 40+ matches

Preston37%
×Draw28%
Watford35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.20
Watford
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 51 away

creates per match

Preston
1.01
Watford
1.04

allows per match

Preston
1.28
Watford
1.39

finishing

Preston+0.19scores more
Watford-0.02on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw
65%
Preston or Watford
72%
Draw or Watford
63%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
16%
Watford wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
70%
Preston 2+ goals
34%
Preston 3+ goals
12%
Watford 1+ goals
69%
Watford 2+ goals
32%
Watford 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
51%
Watford (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.28 · 40 matches

Watford away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.39 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.01 + Watford defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.20

Watford attack 1.04 + Preston defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Preston scores more
37%
level
28%
Watford scores more
35%

Preston at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Preston 1–5 Watford

Watford beat Preston 5-1 in Championship on December 16, 2023.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.