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Preston vs Watford — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Watford
Watford
João Pedro 51' (pen)
2/16/2021ChampionshipChampionship · Round 30Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 60+ matches

Preston40%
×Draw28%
Watford32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.26
Watford
1.09

Preston creates 16% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 60 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
Watford
1.01

allows per match

Preston
1.17
Watford
1.38

finishing

Preston+0.07on par
Watford-0.01on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Watford →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw
68%
Preston or Watford
72%
Draw or Watford
60%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
18%
Watford wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
72%
Preston 2+ goals
36%
Preston 3+ goals
13%
Watford 1+ goals
66%
Watford 2+ goals
30%
Watford 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
56%
Watford (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Watford away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.38 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Watford defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.26

Watford attack 1.01 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Preston scores more
40%
level
28%
Watford scores more
32%

Preston at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
T. CleverleyWatfordWatford · M
7.7

Match Events

51'
João PedroPenalty
62'
A. Gordon← T. Barkhuizen
63'
Tom Cleverley
72'
E. Riis← S. Sinclair
73'
D. Gosling← N. Chalobah
79'
B. Potts← D. Johnson
81'
S. Perica← João Pedro
81'
P. Zinckernagel← K. Sema

Possession

39%Preston

Shots

12Preston

Pass accuracy

46%Preston

Statistics

PrestonWatford
Overview
39%Possession61%
12Total Shots9
4Corners8
14Fouls10
Shots
12Total Shots9
0On Target1
10Off Target6
2Blocked2
10Inside Box5
2Outside Box4
Passing
39%Possession61%
304Total Passes466
198Accurate Passes359
65%Pass Accuracy77%
Discipline
14Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
3Offsides3

Match Recap: Preston vs Watford

Watford beat Preston 1-0 in Championship on February 16, 2021.

Goals: João Pedro (51' pen).

Watford controlled possession (61%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.