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Preston vs Swansea — Championship 2025

Preston
Preston
Preview
14:00
Swansea
Swansea
4/3/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 40Deepdale
Big match
39%
Preston
model favours
39%28%33%

Swansea have scored in 14 games running

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Preston39%
×Draw28%
Swansea33%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.27
Swansea
1.14

Preston creates 11% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 10 away

creates per match

Preston
1.00
Swansea
0.99

allows per match

Preston
1.28
Swansea
1.55

finishing

Preston+0.29scores more
Swansea+0.01on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Swansea →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw
67%
Preston or Swansea
72%
Draw or Swansea
61%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
17%
Swansea wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
72%
Preston 2+ goals
36%
Preston 3+ goals
14%
Swansea 1+ goals
68%
Swansea 2+ goals
32%
Swansea 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
54%
Swansea (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.28 · 24 matches

Swansea away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.55 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.00 + Swansea defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.27

Swansea attack 0.99 + Preston defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Preston scores more
39%
level
28%
Swansea scores more
33%

Preston at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Swansea score first in only 13% of matches
  • Preston score first in only 17% of matches
  • Both teams score in 83% of Swansea’s matches
  • Both teams score in 76% of Preston’s matches
  • Swansea win just 20% of their away games

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Preston
Direct / counter-attacking
Swansea
Balanced
45%PossessionBiggest gap56%
71%Pass accuracy79%
10.5Shots11.2
1.05xG1.04
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PrestonSwansea

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

1
Preston
2
Draws
2
Swansea
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 60%
1–12–10–00–31–2

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Preston
WLWL
Swansea
WDWLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preston face Swansea (Championship)

Championship returns with Preston hosting Swansea. Match starts April 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Preston host Swansea at Deepdale.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.