Preston 2–1 Swansea: Result & Stats | Championship

Preston

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Swansea

D. Holmes 79'

A. Hughes 67'

H. Ashby 33'

8/26/2023

Championship · Round 4Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 52+ matches

Preston41%

×Draw27%

Swansea31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.12

Preston

1.33

Swansea

1.12

Preston creates 19% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 52 away

1.14

creates per match

1.07

1.17

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Preston

1.14

Swansea

1.07

allows per match

Preston

1.17

Swansea

1.52

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Preston+0.07on par

Swansea-0.01on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw

69%

Preston or Swansea

73%

Draw or Swansea

59%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

19%

Swansea wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

74%

Preston 2+ goals

38%

Preston 3+ goals

15%

Swansea 1+ goals

67%

Swansea 2+ goals

31%

Swansea 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

57%

Swansea (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.52 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Swansea defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.33

Swansea attack 1.07 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Preston scores more

41%

level

27%

Swansea scores more

31%

Preston at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

A. Hughes

Preston · D

8.2

Match Events

11'

33'

48'

48'

62'

67'

71'

J. Paterson← L. Cullen

71'

O. Cooper← C. Patino

79'

D. Holmes↳ M. Frøkjær-Jensen

80'

A. Abdulai← H. Ashby

80'

J. Allen← J. Fulton

84'

M. Kukharevych← J. Yates

85'

J. Whatmough← D. Holmes

90+2'

B. Woodburn← M. Frøkjær-Jensen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonSwansea

Overview

40%Possession60%

11Total Shots10

0.59Expected Goals (xG)0.35

5Corners4

12Fouls7

Shots

11Total Shots10

3On Target1

6Off Target6

2Blocked3

5Inside Box4

6Outside Box6

Passing

40%Possession60%

377Total Passes584

282Accurate Passes478

75%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls7

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0