Preston 3–1 Swansea: Result & Stats | Championship

Preston

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Swansea

B. Whiteman 52'

E. Riis 45+2'

S. van den Berg 21'

J. Piroe 19'

8/28/2021

Championship · Round 5Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 55+ matches

Preston40%

×Draw27%

Swansea32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchSwansea

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.14

Preston

1.31

Swansea

1.14

Preston creates 15% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 55 away

1.14

creates per match

1.10

1.17

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Preston

1.14

Swansea

1.10

allows per match

Preston

1.17

Swansea

1.48

+0.07on par

finishing

-0.03on par

finishing

Preston+0.07on par

Swansea-0.03on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Swansea →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw

68%

Preston or Swansea

73%

Draw or Swansea

60%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

18%

Swansea wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

73%

Preston 2+ goals

38%

Preston 3+ goals

14%

Swansea 1+ goals

68%

Swansea 2+ goals

32%

Swansea 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

56%

Swansea (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Swansea away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.48 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Swansea defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.31

Swansea attack 1.10 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Preston scores more

40%

level

27%

Swansea scores more

32%

Preston at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

S. van den Berg

Preston · M

7.6

Match Events

11'

B. Cooper← J. Latibeaudiere

19'

J. Piroe↳ L. Cullen

21'

S. van den Berg↳ J. Earl

45+2'

51'

52'

59'

61'

61'

61'

K. Naughton← J. Fulton

71'

80'

85'

87'

90+4'

J. Rodwell-Grant← R. Ledson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonSwansea

Overview

41%Possession59%

11Total Shots5

3Corners1

22Fouls10

Shots

11Total Shots5

6On Target2

5Off Target1

0Blocked2

7Inside Box4

4Outside Box1

Passing

41%Possession59%

298Total Passes449

221Accurate Passes365

74%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

Discipline

22Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Preston vs Swansea

Preston beat Swansea 3-1 in Championship on August 28, 2021.

Goals: J. Piroe (19'), S. van den Berg (21'), E. Riis (45+2'), B. Whiteman (52').

Swansea controlled possession (59%) and registered 5 shots to 11.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.

Preston vs Swansea — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Preston vs Swansea