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Preston vs QPR — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
QPR
QPR
J. Dunne 58'
12/17/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 23Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Preston41%
×Draw29%
QPR30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.21
QPR
0.98

Preston creates 23% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 59 away

creates per match

Preston
1.16
QPR
0.78

allows per match

Preston
1.18
QPR
1.26

finishing

Preston+0.06on par
QPR+0.08on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Preston or draw
70%
Preston or QPR
71%
Draw or QPR
59%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
18%
QPR wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
70%
Preston 2+ goals
34%
Preston 3+ goals
12%
QPR 1+ goals
62%
QPR 2+ goals
26%
QPR 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
58%
QPR (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

QPR away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.26 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.16 + QPR defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.21

QPR attack 0.78 + Preston defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Preston scores more
41%
level
29%
QPR scores more
30%

Preston at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
J. DunneQPRQPR · D
8.3

Match Events

3'
Andre Dozzell
27'
Lyndon Dykes
58'
J. Dunne↳ K. Paal
68'
F. Cross-Adair← R. Ledson
74'
Liam Lindsay
77'
Seny Dieng
78'
O. Shodipo← C. Willock
86'
M. O'Neil← G. Cunningham
90'
Bambo Diaby← B. Potts
90+2'
R. Dickie← A. Dozzell

Possession

52%Preston

Shots

10Preston

Pass accuracy

49%Preston

Statistics

PrestonQPR
Overview
52%Possession48%
10Total Shots17
4Corners4
18Fouls13
Shots
10Total Shots17
2On Target6
5Off Target6
3Blocked5
9Inside Box12
1Outside Box5
Passing
52%Possession48%
396Total Passes366
254Accurate Passes247
64%Pass Accuracy67%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
18Fouls13
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides0

Preston 0 – 1 QPR

QPR beat Preston 1-0 in Championship on December 17, 2022.

Goals: J. Dunne (58').

Preston controlled possession (52%) and registered 10 shots to 17.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.