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Preston vs QPR — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
QPR
QPR
C. Archer 50'
J. Dunne 42' (OG)
A. Gray 90+3' (pen)
4/9/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 41Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 60+ matches

Preston41%
×Draw29%
QPR30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.21
QPR
0.98

Preston creates 23% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 60 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
QPR
0.79

allows per match

Preston
1.17
QPR
1.28

finishing

Preston+0.07on par
QPR+0.11scores more

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Preston or draw
70%
Preston or QPR
71%
Draw or QPR
59%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
18%
QPR wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
70%
Preston 2+ goals
34%
Preston 3+ goals
12%
QPR 1+ goals
62%
QPR 2+ goals
26%
QPR 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
58%
QPR (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.28 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + QPR defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.21

QPR attack 0.79 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Preston scores more
41%
level
29%
QPR scores more
30%

Preston at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
D. IversenPrestonPreston · G
8.3

Match Events

42'
J. DunneOwn goal
45+1'
S. Maguire← E. Riis
50'
C. Archer↳ D. Johnson
57'
G. Thomas← L. Amos
68'
C. Austin← L. Dykes
69'
A. Gray← I. Chair
70'
J. Murphy← G. Cunningham
85'
Samuel Field
90'
M. O'Neil← C. Archer
90+3'
A. GrayPenalty

Possession

49%Preston

Shots

21Preston

Pass accuracy

50%Preston

Statistics

PrestonQPR
Overview
49%Possession51%
21Total Shots15
7Corners5
11Fouls9
Shots
21Total Shots15
7On Target7
5Off Target5
9Blocked3
17Inside Box12
4Outside Box3
Passing
49%Possession51%
432Total Passes461
321Accurate Passes338
74%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
6Saves5
Discipline
11Fouls9
0Yellow Cards1
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Preston vs QPR

Preston beat QPR 2-1 in Championship on April 9, 2022.

Goals: J. Dunne (42' o.g.), C. Archer (50'), A. Gray (90+3' pen).

QPR controlled possession (51%) and registered 15 shots to 21.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.