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Preston vs Portsmouth — Championship 2025

Preston
Preston
Preview
19:45
Portsmouth
Portsmouth
12/9/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 20Deepdale
Big match
38%
Portsmouth
model favours
33%29%38%

Preston score first in only 17% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
63%
under 2.5 goals
44%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Preston33%
×Draw29%
Portsmouth38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.03
Portsmouth
1.13

Portsmouth creates 10% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 8 away

creates per match

Preston
0.98
Portsmouth
0.93

allows per match

Preston
1.32
Portsmouth
1.08

finishing

Preston+0.26scores more
Portsmouth+0.32scores more

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Portsmouth →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Preston or draw
62%
Preston or Portsmouth
71%
Draw or Portsmouth
67%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
12%
Portsmouth wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
64%
Preston 2+ goals
28%
Preston 3+ goals
9%
Portsmouth 1+ goals
68%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
31%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
46%
Portsmouth (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.32 · 25 matches

Portsmouth away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.08 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 0.98 + Portsmouth defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.03

Portsmouth attack 0.93 + Preston defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Preston scores more
33%
level
29%
Portsmouth scores more
38%

Portsmouth at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 76% of Preston’s matches
  • Style contrast — Preston play Direct / counter-attacking, Portsmouth Defensively solid

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Preston
Direct / counter-attacking
Portsmouth
Defensively solid
45%Possession47%
71%Pass accuracy73%
10.5ShotsBiggest gap13.3
1.05xG1.28
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
PrestonPortsmouth

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

2
Preston
1
Draws
2
Portsmouth
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 60%
1–00–12–11–31–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Preston
WLWL
Portsmouth
LWDWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preston vs Portsmouth — Match Preview

Preston face Portsmouth on December 9, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Preston host Portsmouth at Deepdale.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.