Preston 1–1 Millwall: Result & Stats | Championship

Preston

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Millwall

M. Frøkjær-Jensen 3'

Z. Flemming 30'

10/21/2023

Championship · Round 12Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 59+ matches

Preston38%

×Draw28%

Millwall34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.15

Preston

1.24

Millwall

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 59 away

1.16

creates per match

1.13

1.18

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Preston

1.16

Millwall

1.13

allows per match

Preston

1.18

Millwall

1.32

+0.06on par

finishing

-0.06on par

finishing

Preston+0.06on par

Millwall-0.06on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw

66%

Preston or Millwall

72%

Draw or Millwall

62%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

17%

Millwall wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

71%

Preston 2+ goals

35%

Preston 3+ goals

13%

Millwall 1+ goals

68%

Millwall 2+ goals

32%

Millwall 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

53%

Millwall (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.16, concedes 1.18 · 60 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.32 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.16 + Millwall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.24

Millwall attack 1.13 + Preston defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Preston scores more

38%

level

28%

Millwall scores more

34%

Preston at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Frøkjær-Jensen

Preston · F

7.7

Match Events

3'

M. Frøkjær-Jensen↳ W. Keane

19'

Duane Holmes

30'

Z. Flemming↳ A. Campbell

61'

Greg Cunningham

63'

L. Millar← R. Brady

63'

M. Osmajić← D. Holmes

66'

Aidomo Emakhu

69'

R. Longman← A. Emakhu

73'

Liam Millar

73'

C. Evans← W. Keane

74'

A. Browne← R. Ledson

82'

B. Mitchell← A. Campbell

84'

B. Woodburn← M. Frøkjær-Jensen

90+3'

Liam Lindsay

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonMillwall

Overview

54%Possession46%

7Total Shots7

0.48Expected Goals (xG)0.34

5Corners2

13Fouls15

Shots

7Total Shots7

2On Target4

3Off Target2

2Blocked1

3Inside Box4

4Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

384Total Passes325

299Accurate Passes237

78%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls15

4Yellow Cards1

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Preston vs Millwall

Preston and Millwall drew 1-1 in Championship on October 21, 2023.

Goals: M. Frøkjær-Jensen (3'), Z. Flemming (30').

Preston controlled possession (54%) and registered 7 shots to 7.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.

Preston vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Preston vs Millwall