Preston 2–4 Millwall: Result & Stats | Championship

Preston

FT

2 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Millwall

C. Evans 28'

A. Hughes 20'

C. Cresswell 72'

Z. Flemming 64', 16', 4'

11/12/2022

Championship · Round 21Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 58+ matches

Preston38%

×Draw28%

Millwall34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchMillwall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.17

Preston

1.25

Millwall

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 59 home / 58 away

1.17

creates per match

1.15

1.19

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Preston

1.17

Millwall

1.15

allows per match

Preston

1.19

Millwall

1.33

+0.05on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

Preston+0.05on par

Millwall-0.08on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Millwall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Preston or draw

66%

Preston or Millwall

72%

Draw or Millwall

62%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

17%

Millwall wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

71%

Preston 2+ goals

36%

Preston 3+ goals

13%

Millwall 1+ goals

69%

Millwall 2+ goals

33%

Millwall 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

53%

Millwall (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.19 · 59 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.33 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.17 + Millwall defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Millwall attack 1.15 + Preston defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Preston scores more

38%

level

28%

Millwall scores more

34%

Preston at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Z. Flemming

Millwall · M

9.3

Match Events

4'

Z. Flemming↳ A. Voglsammer

14'

16'

19'

20'

20'

28'

31'

52'

S. Malone← G. Honeyman

64'

Z. Flemming↳ D. McNamara

67'

Álvaro Fernández← R. Brady

67'

B. Woodburn← A. Browne

72'

C. Cresswell

77'

S. Maguire← A. Hughes

78'

D. Johnson← C. Evans

84'

C. Styles← A. Voglsammer

85'

J. Shackleton← G. Saville

88'

T. Burey← Z. Flemming

88'

M. Bennett← T. Bradshaw

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonMillwall

Overview

58%Possession42%

17Total Shots5

2Corners2

5Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots5

4On Target4

9Off Target0

4Blocked1

12Inside Box4

5Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

510Total Passes370

373Accurate Passes238

73%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

5Fouls10

1Yellow Cards3

3Offsides1