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Preston vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Millwall
Millwall
M. Wallace 6' (OG)
M. Wallace 22'
4/15/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 42Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 62+ matches

Preston38%
×Draw28%
Millwall34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.23
Millwall
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
Millwall
1.12

allows per match

Preston
1.17
Millwall
1.32

finishing

Preston+0.07on par
Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw
66%
Preston or Millwall
72%
Draw or Millwall
62%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
16%
Millwall wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
71%
Preston 2+ goals
35%
Preston 3+ goals
13%
Millwall 1+ goals
68%
Millwall 2+ goals
32%
Millwall 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
53%
Millwall (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Millwall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Millwall attack 1.12 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Preston scores more
38%
level
28%
Millwall scores more
34%

Preston at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3
M. WallaceMillwallMillwall · D
8.2

Match Events

6'
M. WallaceOwn goal
22'
M. Wallace↳ J. Wallace
29'
A. McCann← A. Browne
31'
Maikel Kieftenbeld
67'
C. Evans← S. Maguire
67'
J. Murphy← B. Potts
71'
T. Bradshaw← O. Burke
73'
G. Saville← B. Mitchell

Possession

54%Preston

Shots

17Preston

Pass accuracy

52%Preston

Statistics

PrestonMillwall
Overview
54%Possession46%
17Total Shots16
10Corners6
10Fouls7
Shots
17Total Shots16
5On Target7
7Off Target7
5Blocked2
10Inside Box13
7Outside Box3
Passing
54%Possession46%
433Total Passes374
337Accurate Passes268
78%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
6Saves5
Discipline
10Fouls7
0Yellow Cards1
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Preston vs Millwall

Preston and Millwall drew 1-1 in Championship on April 15, 2022.

Goals: M. Wallace (6' o.g., 22').

Preston controlled possession (54%) and registered 17 shots to 16.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.