Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Preston vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Millwall
Millwall
J. Wallace 84' (pen)
K. Zohorè 54'
10/28/2020ChampionshipChampionship · Round 8Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 61+ matches

Preston38%
×Draw28%
Millwall34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.23
Millwall
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 61 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
Millwall
1.12

allows per match

Preston
1.17
Millwall
1.33

finishing

Preston+0.07on par
Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw
66%
Preston or Millwall
72%
Draw or Millwall
62%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
16%
Millwall wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
71%
Preston 2+ goals
35%
Preston 3+ goals
13%
Millwall 1+ goals
68%
Millwall 2+ goals
32%
Millwall 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
53%
Millwall (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.33 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Millwall defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Millwall attack 1.12 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Preston scores more
38%
level
28%
Millwall scores more
34%

Preston at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7
J. WallaceMillwallMillwall · F
8.7

Match Events

46'
P. Huntington← P. Bauer
54'
K. Zohorè↳ J. Wallace
55'
J. Harrop← B. Potts
64'
T. Barkhuizen← R. Ledson
71'
Daniel Johnson
72'
J. Böðvarsson← M. Bennett
75'
T. Bradshaw← K. Zohorè
84'
J. WallacePenalty
90'
Alan Browne
90+2'
S. Ferguson← J. Wallace

Possession

56%Preston

Shots

5Preston

Pass accuracy

51%Preston

Statistics

PrestonMillwall
Overview
56%Possession44%
5Total Shots13
2Corners7
16Fouls4
Shots
5Total Shots13
1On Target4
1Off Target3
3Blocked6
3Inside Box7
2Outside Box6
Passing
56%Possession44%
519Total Passes385
414Accurate Passes293
80%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
16Fouls4
2Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Preston vs Millwall

Millwall beat Preston 2-0 in Championship on October 28, 2020.

Goals: K. Zohorè (54'), J. Wallace (84' pen).

Preston controlled possession (56%) and registered 5 shots to 13.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.