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Preston vs Millwall — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Millwall
Millwall
A. Hughes 81'
T. Barkhuizen 42'
A. Browne 37'
L. Gregory 90+3'
J. Cooper 61'
12/15/2018ChampionshipChampionship · Round 22Deepdale Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 62+ matches

Preston38%
×Draw28%
Millwall34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.23
Millwall
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 62 home / 62 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
Millwall
1.12

allows per match

Preston
1.17
Millwall
1.32

finishing

Preston+0.07on par
Millwall-0.07on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Millwall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw
66%
Preston or Millwall
72%
Draw or Millwall
62%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
16%
Millwall wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
71%
Preston 2+ goals
35%
Preston 3+ goals
13%
Millwall 1+ goals
68%
Millwall 2+ goals
32%
Millwall 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
53%
Millwall (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Millwall away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.32 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Millwall defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.23

Millwall attack 1.12 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Preston scores more
38%
level
28%
Millwall scores more
34%

Preston at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
P. GallagherPrestonPreston · M
7.8

Match Events

5'
Mahlon Romeo
15'
Ben Davies
37'
A. Browne↳ L. Nmecha
42'
T. Barkhuizen↳ P. Gallagher
46'
S. Ferguson← J. Meredith
61'
J. Cooper↳ S. Ferguson
69'
Jed Wallace
80'
Jake Cooper
81'
A. Hughes
82'
R. Ledson← D. Johnson
82'
T. Elliott← R. Tunnicliffe
90+2'
G. Burke← A. Browne
90+3'
L. Gregory↳ T. Elliott

Possession

58%Preston

Shots

14Preston

Pass accuracy

55%Preston

Statistics

PrestonMillwall
Overview
58%Possession42%
14Total Shots17
8Corners10
9Fouls10
Shots
14Total Shots17
7On Target4
5Off Target8
2Blocked5
7Inside Box14
7Outside Box3
Passing
58%Possession42%
442Total Passes293
309Accurate Passes168
70%Pass Accuracy57%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Yellow Cards3
0Red Cards0
2Offsides1

Championship: Preston 3–2 Millwall

Preston beat Millwall 3-2 in Championship on December 15, 2018.

Goals: A. Browne (37'), T. Barkhuizen (42'), J. Cooper (61'), A. Hughes (81'), L. Gregory (90+3').

Preston controlled possession (58%) and registered 14 shots to 17.

The match was played at Deepdale Stadium in Preston.