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Preston vs Leeds — Championship 2018

Preston
Preston
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Leeds
Leeds
T. Barkhuizen 74'
E. Nketiah 87'
10/22/2019ChampionshipChampionship · Round 13Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Preston28%
×Draw27%
Leeds45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston
1.01
Leeds
1.38

Leeds creates 37% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 33 away

creates per match

Preston
1.14
Leeds
1.58

allows per match

Preston
1.17
Leeds
0.88

finishing

Preston+0.07on par
Leeds-0.06on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Leeds →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw
55%
Preston or Leeds
73%
Draw or Leeds
72%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+
10%
Leeds wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals
64%
Preston 2+ goals
27%
Preston 3+ goals
8%
Leeds 1+ goals
75%
Leeds 2+ goals
40%
Leeds 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)
38%
Leeds (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Leeds away — creates 1.58, concedes 0.88 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Leeds defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.01

Leeds attack 1.58 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Preston scores more
28%
level
27%
Leeds scores more
45%

Leeds at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Leeds will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
B. DaviesPrestonPreston · D
7.6

Match Events

72'
S. Maguire← D. Nugent
74'
T. Barkhuizen↳ S. Maguire
77'
T. Roberts← G. Berardi
77'
E. Nketiah← P. Bamford
86'
Darnell Fisher
87'
E. Nketiah↳ J. Harrison
90+1'
A. Green← T. Barkhuizen

Possession

36%Preston

Shots

11Preston

Pass accuracy

43%Preston

Statistics

PrestonLeeds
Overview
36%Possession64%
11Total Shots22
4Corners8
9Fouls9
Shots
11Total Shots22
2On Target3
6Off Target10
3Blocked9
9Inside Box15
2Outside Box7
Passing
36%Possession64%
242Total Passes398
129Accurate Passes282
53%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves1
Discipline
9Fouls9
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Preston vs Leeds

Preston and Leeds drew 1-1 in Championship on October 22, 2019.

Goals: T. Barkhuizen (74'), E. Nketiah (87').

Leeds controlled possession (64%) and registered 22 shots to 11.

The match was played at Deepdale in Preston.