Preston 3–1 Huddersfield: Result & Stats

Preston

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Huddersfield

P. Gallagher 50' (pen)

A. Browne 33'

J. Stockley 4'

J. Bacuna 74'

11/9/2019

Championship · Round 16Deepdale

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Preston42%

×Draw28%

Huddersfield30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PrestonExpected goals in this matchHuddersfield

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.06

Preston

1.31

Huddersfield

1.06

Preston creates 24% more chances

Season form · 62 home / 12 away

1.14

creates per match

0.96

1.17

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Preston

1.14

Huddersfield

0.96

allows per match

Preston

1.17

Huddersfield

1.49

+0.07on par

finishing

+0.12scores more than expected

finishing

Preston+0.07on par

Huddersfield+0.12scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston ↓

Huddersfield →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Preston or draw

70%

Preston or Huddersfield

72%

Draw or Huddersfield

58%

Winning margin

Preston wins by 2+

19%

Huddersfield wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Preston 1+ goals

73%

Preston 2+ goals

38%

Preston 3+ goals

14%

Huddersfield 1+ goals

65%

Huddersfield 2+ goals

29%

Huddersfield 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Preston (draw refunded)

58%

Huddersfield (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.17 · 62 matches

Huddersfield away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.49 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston attack 1.14 + Huddersfield defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.31

Huddersfield attack 0.96 + Preston defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Preston scores more

42%

level

28%

Huddersfield scores more

30%

Preston at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Preston will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12

P. Gallagher

Preston · M

8.4

Match Events

4'

J. Stockley

18'

Ryan Ledson

22'

J. Stankovič← T. Elphick

33'

A. Browne↳ T. Barkhuizen

45'

Darnell Fisher

45'

Juninho Bacuna

50'

P. GallagherPenalty

59'

S. Mounié← A. Diakhaby

62'

Jayden Stockley

62'

Lewis O'Brien

65'

A. Pritchard← D. Simpson

72'

B. Potts← P. Gallagher

74'

J. Bacuna

76'

D. Nugent← J. Stockley

86'

Sean Maguire

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PrestonHuddersfield

Overview

36%Possession64%

21Total Shots8

12Corners4

11Fouls17

Shots

21Total Shots8

4On Target1

10Off Target3

7Blocked4

17Inside Box5

4Outside Box3

Passing

36%Possession64%

224Total Passes399

128Accurate Passes283

57%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

0Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls17

4Yellow Cards2

6Offsides1