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Preston Lions vs Green Gully — Victoria NPL 2026

Preston Lions
Preston Lions
Preview
10:30
Green Gully
Green Gully
7/31/2026Victoria NPLVictoria NPL · Round 23Genis Steel Stadium
48%
Preston Lions
model favours
48%25%26%

Preston Lions have won 4 in a row

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
50%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Preston Lions48%
×Draw25%
Green Gully26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preston Lions
1.57
Green Gully
1.09

Preston Lions creates 44% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 87 away

creates per match

Preston Lions
1.62
Green Gully
1.32

allows per match

Preston Lions
0.86
Green Gully
1.52

finishing

Preston Lions+0.00on par
Green Gully+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preston Lions ↓

Green Gully →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Preston Lions or draw
74%
Preston Lions or Green Gully
75%
Draw or Green Gully
52%

Winning margin

Preston Lions wins by 2+
25%
Green Gully wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Preston Lions 1+ goals
79%
Preston Lions 2+ goals
46%
Preston Lions 3+ goals
21%
Green Gully 1+ goals
66%
Green Gully 2+ goals
30%
Green Gully 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Preston Lions (draw refunded)
65%
Green Gully (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preston Lions at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.86 · 21 matches

Green Gully away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.52 · 87 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preston Lions attack 1.62 + Green Gully defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.57

Green Gully attack 1.32 + Preston Lions defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Preston Lions scores more
48%
level
25%
Green Gully scores more
26%

Preston Lions at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Preston Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Green Gully score first in only 23% of matches
  • Both teams score in 85% of Green Gully’s matches
  • Preston Lions score first in only 27% of matches
  • 77% of Green Gully’s matches go over 2.5 goals
  • Preston Lions have won 3 of the last 3 meetings
  • 73% of Preston Lions’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Lions
WWWWW
Gully
LWWLL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preston Lions vs Green Gully — Match Preview

Preston Lions face Green Gully on July 31, 2026 in this Victoria NPL fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Preston Lions host Green Gully at Genis Steel Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.