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Přeštice vs České Budějovice II — 4. liga - Divizie A 2019

Přeštice
Přeštice
CANC
15:00
České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
6/5/20214. liga - Divizie A4. liga - Divizie A · Division A - 27Stadion Přeštice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Přeštice55%
×Draw21%
České Budějovice II24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Přeštice
2.16
České Budějovice II
1.39

Přeštice creates 55% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

creates per match

Přeštice
3.00
České Budějovice II
2.19

allows per match

Přeštice
0.59
České Budějovice II
1.31

finishing

Přeštice+0.00on par
České Budějovice II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Přeštice ↓

České Budějovice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Přeštice or draw
76%
Přeštice or České Budějovice II
79%
Draw or České Budějovice II
45%

Winning margin

Přeštice wins by 2+
33%
České Budějovice II wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Přeštice 1+ goals
88%
Přeštice 2+ goals
63%
Přeštice 3+ goals
36%
České Budějovice II 1+ goals
75%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
40%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Přeštice (draw refunded)
69%
České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Přeštice at home — creates 3.00, concedes 0.59 · 27 matches

České Budějovice II away — creates 2.19, concedes 1.31 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Přeštice attack 3.00 + České Budějovice II defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 2.16

České Budějovice II attack 2.19 + Přeštice defence 0.59 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Přeštice scores more
55%
level
21%
České Budějovice II scores more
24%

Přeštice at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Přeštice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Přeštice vs České Budějovice II — Match Preview

Přeštice face České Budějovice II on June 5, 2021 in this 4. liga - Divizie A fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Přeštice host České Budějovice II at Stadion Přeštice.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.