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Pregarten vs Donau Linz — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Pregarten
Pregarten
PST
15:00
Donau Linz
Donau Linz
5/23/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 27ASKÖ Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Pregarten58%
×Draw20%
Donau Linz22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pregarten
2.23
Donau Linz
1.32

Pregarten creates 69% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 30 away

creates per match

Pregarten
1.59
Donau Linz
1.03

allows per match

Pregarten
1.61
Donau Linz
2.87

finishing

Pregarten+0.00on par
Donau Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pregarten ↓

Donau Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Pregarten or draw
78%
Pregarten or Donau Linz
80%
Draw or Donau Linz
42%

Winning margin

Pregarten wins by 2+
36%
Donau Linz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Pregarten 1+ goals
89%
Pregarten 2+ goals
65%
Pregarten 3+ goals
38%
Donau Linz 1+ goals
73%
Donau Linz 2+ goals
38%
Donau Linz 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Pregarten (draw refunded)
72%
Donau Linz (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pregarten at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.61 · 88 matches

Donau Linz away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pregarten attack 1.59 + Donau Linz defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.23

Donau Linz attack 1.03 + Pregarten defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Pregarten scores more
58%
level
20%
Donau Linz scores more
22%

Pregarten at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Pregarten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Pregarten vs Donau Linz — Match Preview

Pregarten face Donau Linz on May 23, 2020 in this Landesliga - Oberosterreich fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Pregarten host Donau Linz at ASKÖ Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.