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Praviano vs Sporting Gijón II — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Praviano
Praviano
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Sporting Gijón II
Sporting Gijón II
1/30/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 23Estadio Santa Catalina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 86+ matches

Praviano30%
×Draw29%
Sporting Gijón II41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Praviano
0.98
Sporting Gijón II
1.19

Sporting Gijón II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 86 away

creates per match

Praviano
1.19
Sporting Gijón II
1.41

allows per match

Praviano
0.96
Sporting Gijón II
0.78

finishing

Praviano+0.00on par
Sporting Gijón II+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Praviano ↓

Sporting Gijón II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Praviano or draw
59%
Praviano or Sporting Gijón II
71%
Draw or Sporting Gijón II
70%

Winning margin

Praviano wins by 2+
11%
Sporting Gijón II wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Praviano 1+ goals
62%
Praviano 2+ goals
26%
Praviano 3+ goals
8%
Sporting Gijón II 1+ goals
70%
Sporting Gijón II 2+ goals
33%
Sporting Gijón II 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Praviano (draw refunded)
43%
Sporting Gijón II (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Praviano at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Sporting Gijón II away — creates 1.41, concedes 0.78 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Praviano attack 1.19 + Sporting Gijón II defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.98

Sporting Gijón II attack 1.41 + Praviano defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Praviano scores more
30%
level
29%
Sporting Gijón II scores more
41%

Sporting Gijón II at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Sporting Gijón II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Praviano 0 – 0 Sporting Gijón II

Praviano and Sporting Gijón II drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on January 30, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Catalina in Pravia.