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Praviano vs Siero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Praviano
Praviano
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Siero
Siero
9/29/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 6Estadio Santa Catalina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Praviano48%
×Draw28%
Siero24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Praviano
1.32
Siero
0.85

Praviano creates 55% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 46 away

creates per match

Praviano
1.19
Siero
0.74

allows per match

Praviano
0.96
Siero
1.46

finishing

Praviano+0.00on par
Siero+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Praviano ↓

Siero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Praviano or draw
76%
Praviano or Siero
72%
Draw or Siero
52%

Winning margin

Praviano wins by 2+
22%
Siero wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Praviano 1+ goals
73%
Praviano 2+ goals
38%
Praviano 3+ goals
15%
Siero 1+ goals
57%
Siero 2+ goals
21%
Siero 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Praviano (draw refunded)
66%
Siero (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Praviano at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Siero away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Praviano attack 1.19 + Siero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.32

Siero attack 0.74 + Praviano defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Praviano scores more
48%
level
28%
Siero scores more
24%

Praviano at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Praviano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Praviano 3–1 Siero

Praviano beat Siero 3-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Catalina in Pravia.