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Praviano vs Real Titánico — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Praviano
Praviano
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Real Titánico
Real Titánico
10/9/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Estadio Santa Catalina

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 97+ matches

Praviano51%
×Draw26%
Real Titánico23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Praviano
1.52
Real Titánico
0.94

Praviano creates 62% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 97 away

creates per match

Praviano
1.19
Real Titánico
0.92

allows per match

Praviano
0.96
Real Titánico
1.84

finishing

Praviano+0.00on par
Real Titánico+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Praviano ↓

Real Titánico →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Praviano or draw
77%
Praviano or Real Titánico
74%
Draw or Real Titánico
49%

Winning margin

Praviano wins by 2+
26%
Real Titánico wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Praviano 1+ goals
78%
Praviano 2+ goals
45%
Praviano 3+ goals
20%
Real Titánico 1+ goals
61%
Real Titánico 2+ goals
24%
Real Titánico 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Praviano (draw refunded)
68%
Real Titánico (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Praviano at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.96 · 113 matches

Real Titánico away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.84 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Praviano attack 1.19 + Real Titánico defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.52

Real Titánico attack 0.92 + Praviano defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Praviano scores more
51%
level
26%
Real Titánico scores more
23%

Praviano at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Praviano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Praviano 3–2 Real Titánico

Praviano beat Real Titánico 3-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 9, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Santa Catalina in Pravia.