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Prachuap vs Chiangrai United — League #296 2026

Prachuap
Prachuap
Preview
11:00
Chiangrai United
Chiangrai United
10/11/2026League #296League #296 · Round 4Sam Ao Stadium
39%
Prachuap
model favours
39%29%32%
1–1
likely score
61%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Prachuap39%
×Draw29%
Chiangrai United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Prachuap
1.18
Chiangrai United
1.05

Prachuap creates 12% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 15 away

creates per match

Prachuap
1.55
Chiangrai United
1.20

allows per match

Prachuap
0.91
Chiangrai United
0.80

finishing

Prachuap+0.00on par
Chiangrai United+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Prachuap ↓

Chiangrai United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Prachuap or draw
68%
Prachuap or Chiangrai United
71%
Draw or Chiangrai United
61%

Winning margin

Prachuap wins by 2+
16%
Chiangrai United wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Prachuap 1+ goals
69%
Prachuap 2+ goals
33%
Prachuap 3+ goals
12%
Chiangrai United 1+ goals
65%
Chiangrai United 2+ goals
28%
Chiangrai United 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Prachuap (draw refunded)
55%
Chiangrai United (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Prachuap at home — creates 1.55, concedes 0.91 · 11 matches

Chiangrai United away — creates 1.20, concedes 0.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Prachuap attack 1.55 + Chiangrai United defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 1.18

Chiangrai United attack 1.20 + Prachuap defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Prachuap scores more
39%
level
29%
Chiangrai United scores more
32%

Prachuap at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Prachuap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Prachuap
DWWDW
United
DWDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Prachuap host Chiangrai United

October 11, 2026: Prachuap take on Chiangrai United in League #296. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Prachuap host Chiangrai United at Sam Ao Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.