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Pozoblanco vs Gerena — Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 2019

Pozoblanco
Pozoblanco
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Gerena
Gerena
10/3/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 10Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 4Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Pozoblanco43%
×Draw27%
Gerena30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pozoblanco
1.35
Gerena
1.08

Pozoblanco creates 25% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 76 away

creates per match

Pozoblanco
1.45
Gerena
1.11

allows per match

Pozoblanco
1.05
Gerena
1.26

finishing

Pozoblanco+0.00on par
Gerena+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozoblanco ↓

Gerena →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Pozoblanco or draw
70%
Pozoblanco or Gerena
73%
Draw or Gerena
57%

Winning margin

Pozoblanco wins by 2+
20%
Gerena wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Pozoblanco 1+ goals
74%
Pozoblanco 2+ goals
39%
Pozoblanco 3+ goals
15%
Gerena 1+ goals
66%
Gerena 2+ goals
29%
Gerena 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pozoblanco (draw refunded)
59%
Gerena (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pozoblanco at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Gerena away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pozoblanco attack 1.45 + Gerena defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.35

Gerena attack 1.11 + Pozoblanco defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pozoblanco scores more
43%
level
27%
Gerena scores more
30%

Pozoblanco at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pozoblanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pozoblanco vs Gerena

Pozoblanco and Gerena drew 3-3 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Pozoblanco in Pozoblanco.