Pozoblanco 2–1 Antoniano: Result & Stats

Pozoblanco

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Antoniano

4/14/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 · Group 10 - 2nd Phase - 2Estadio Municipal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Pozoblanco41%

×Draw28%

Antoniano31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PozoblancoExpected goals in this matchAntoniano

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.04

Pozoblanco

1.25

Antoniano

1.04

Pozoblanco creates 20% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 57 away

1.45

creates per match

1.02

1.05

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Pozoblanco

1.45

Antoniano

1.02

allows per match

Pozoblanco

1.05

Antoniano

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Pozoblanco+0.00on par

Antoniano+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pozoblanco ↓

Antoniano →

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Pozoblanco or draw

69%

Pozoblanco or Antoniano

72%

Draw or Antoniano

59%

Winning margin

Pozoblanco wins by 2+

18%

Antoniano wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Pozoblanco 1+ goals

71%

Pozoblanco 2+ goals

36%

Pozoblanco 3+ goals

13%

Antoniano 1+ goals

65%

Antoniano 2+ goals

28%

Antoniano 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Pozoblanco (draw refunded)

57%

Antoniano (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Pozoblanco at home — creates 1.45, concedes 1.05 · 110 matches

Antoniano away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.04 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Pozoblanco attack 1.45 + Antoniano defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.25

Antoniano attack 1.02 + Pozoblanco defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pozoblanco scores more

41%

level

28%

Antoniano scores more

31%

Pozoblanco at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Pozoblanco will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff