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Power Dynamos vs Man Utd Zambia Academy — Super League 2019

Power Dynamos
Power Dynamos
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Man Utd Zambia Academy
Man Utd Zambia Academy
11/25/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 13Arthur Davies Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Power Dynamos46%
×Draw30%
Man Utd Zambia Academy25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Power Dynamos
1.23
Man Utd Zambia Academy
0.82

Power Dynamos creates 50% more chances

Season form · 110 home / 77 away

creates per match

Power Dynamos
1.38
Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.03

allows per match

Power Dynamos
0.62
Man Utd Zambia Academy
1.08

finishing

Power Dynamos+0.00on par
Man Utd Zambia Academy+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Power Dynamos ↓

Man Utd Zambia Academy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Power Dynamos or draw
75%
Power Dynamos or Man Utd Zambia Academy
70%
Draw or Man Utd Zambia Academy
54%

Winning margin

Power Dynamos wins by 2+
20%
Man Utd Zambia Academy wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Power Dynamos 1+ goals
71%
Power Dynamos 2+ goals
35%
Power Dynamos 3+ goals
13%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 1+ goals
56%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 2+ goals
20%
Man Utd Zambia Academy 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Power Dynamos (draw refunded)
65%
Man Utd Zambia Academy (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Power Dynamos at home — creates 1.38, concedes 0.62 · 110 matches

Man Utd Zambia Academy away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.08 · 77 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Power Dynamos attack 1.38 + Man Utd Zambia Academy defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.23

Man Utd Zambia Academy attack 1.03 + Power Dynamos defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Power Dynamos scores more
46%
level
30%
Man Utd Zambia Academy scores more
25%

Power Dynamos at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Power Dynamos will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Power Dynamos vs Man Utd Zambia Academy

Power Dynamos and Man Utd Zambia Academy drew 1-1 in Super League on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Arthur Davies Stadium in Kitwe.