Považská Bystrica vs Lokomotíva Zvolen

Považská Bystrica

Preview

15:00

Lokomotíva Zvolen

5/1/2027

2. liga · Round 28

46%

Považská Bystrica

model favours

46%24%30%

Považská Bystrica score first in only 8% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

56%

over 2.5 goals

58%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Považská Bystrica46%

×Draw24%

Lokomotíva Zvolen30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Považská BystricaExpected goals in this matchLokomotíva Zvolen

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.27

Považská Bystrica

1.64

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.27

Považská Bystrica creates 29% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 30 away

1.81

creates per match

1.17

1.38

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Považská Bystrica

1.81

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.17

allows per match

Považská Bystrica

1.38

Lokomotíva Zvolen

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Považská Bystrica+0.00on par

Lokomotíva Zvolen+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Považská Bystrica ↓

Lokomotíva Zvolen →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Považská Bystrica or draw

70%

Považská Bystrica or Lokomotíva Zvolen

76%

Draw or Lokomotíva Zvolen

54%

Winning margin

Považská Bystrica wins by 2+

24%

Lokomotíva Zvolen wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Považská Bystrica 1+ goals

81%

Považská Bystrica 2+ goals

49%

Považská Bystrica 3+ goals

23%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 1+ goals

72%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 2+ goals

36%

Lokomotíva Zvolen 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Považská Bystrica (draw refunded)

61%

Lokomotíva Zvolen (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Považská Bystrica at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.38 · 58 matches

Lokomotíva Zvolen away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.47 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Považská Bystrica attack 1.81 + Lokomotíva Zvolen defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.64

Lokomotíva Zvolen attack 1.17 + Považská Bystrica defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Považská Bystrica scores more

46%

level

24%

Lokomotíva Zvolen scores more

30%

Považská Bystrica at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Považská Bystrica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Považská Bystrica have won 3 of the last 4 meetings
Považská Bystrica sit 12, Lokomotíva Zvolen 2 in the table

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Bystrica

LWWL

Zvolen

DDLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff