Posušje 1–0 Siroki Brijeg: Result & Stats

Posušje

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Siroki Brijeg

3/17/2024

Premijer Liga · Round 23Stadion Mokri Dolac

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Posušje44%

×Draw28%

Siroki Brijeg28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PosušjeExpected goals in this matchSiroki Brijeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

0.95

Posušje

1.28

Siroki Brijeg

0.95

Posušje creates 35% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 110 away

1.14

creates per match

0.97

0.93

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Posušje

1.14

Siroki Brijeg

0.97

allows per match

Posušje

0.93

Siroki Brijeg

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Posušje+0.00on par

Siroki Brijeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Posušje ↓

Siroki Brijeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Posušje or draw

72%

Posušje or Siroki Brijeg

72%

Draw or Siroki Brijeg

56%

Winning margin

Posušje wins by 2+

20%

Siroki Brijeg wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Posušje 1+ goals

72%

Posušje 2+ goals

37%

Posušje 3+ goals

14%

Siroki Brijeg 1+ goals

61%

Siroki Brijeg 2+ goals

25%

Siroki Brijeg 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Posušje (draw refunded)

61%

Siroki Brijeg (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Posušje at home — creates 1.14, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

Siroki Brijeg away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.43 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Posušje attack 1.14 + Siroki Brijeg defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.28

Siroki Brijeg attack 0.97 + Posušje defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Posušje scores more

44%

level

28%

Siroki Brijeg scores more

28%

Posušje at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Posušje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff