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Portuguesa vs Uberlandia — Serie D 2026

Portuguesa
Portuguesa
Preview
19:00
Uberlandia
Uberlandia
7/25/2026Serie DSerie D · Round of 16Estadio do Caninde
Big match
49%
Portuguesa
model favours
49%27%24%

80% of Portuguesa’s matches stay under 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
45%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Portuguesa49%
×Draw27%
Uberlandia24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa
1.41
Uberlandia
0.89

Portuguesa creates 58% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 29 away

creates per match

Portuguesa
1.82
Uberlandia
1.28

allows per match

Portuguesa
0.50
Uberlandia
1.00

finishing

Portuguesa+0.00on par
Uberlandia+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa ↓

Uberlandia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Portuguesa or draw
76%
Portuguesa or Uberlandia
73%
Draw or Uberlandia
51%

Winning margin

Portuguesa wins by 2+
24%
Uberlandia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Portuguesa 1+ goals
76%
Portuguesa 2+ goals
41%
Portuguesa 3+ goals
17%
Uberlandia 1+ goals
59%
Uberlandia 2+ goals
22%
Uberlandia 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa (draw refunded)
67%
Uberlandia (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa at home — creates 1.82, concedes 0.50 · 22 matches

Uberlandia away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.00 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa attack 1.82 + Uberlandia defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.41

Uberlandia attack 1.28 + Portuguesa defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Portuguesa scores more
49%
level
27%
Uberlandia scores more
24%

Portuguesa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Portuguesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Uberlandia are unbeaten in 5 straight
  • 80% of Uberlandia’s matches stay under 2.5 goals
  • Top-of-the-table clash — Portuguesa 1 vs Uberlandia 1

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Portuguesa
LWDWD
Uberlandia
WDWDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portuguesa vs Uberlandia — Match Preview

Portuguesa face Uberlandia on July 25, 2026 in this Serie D fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Portuguesa host Uberlandia at Estadio do Caninde.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.