Portuguesa U20 vs Sertãozinho U20

Portuguesa U20

Preview

18:00

Sertãozinho U20

9/12/2026

Paulista - U20 · Round 15

58%

Portuguesa U20

model favours

58%21%20%

Portuguesa U20 sit 33, Sertãozinho U20 22 in the table

brightest fact of this match

2–1

likely score

60%

over 2.5 goals

57%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Portuguesa U2058%

×Draw21%

Sertãozinho U2020%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portuguesa U20Expected goals in this matchSertãozinho U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.09

Portuguesa U20

2.01

Sertãozinho U20

1.09

Portuguesa U20 creates 84% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 23 away

2.06

creates per match

1.13

1.06

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Portuguesa U20

2.06

Sertãozinho U20

1.13

allows per match

Portuguesa U20

1.06

Sertãozinho U20

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portuguesa U20+0.00on par

Sertãozinho U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa U20 ↓

Sertãozinho U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Portuguesa U20 or draw

80%

Portuguesa U20 or Sertãozinho U20

79%

Draw or Sertãozinho U20

42%

Winning margin

Portuguesa U20 wins by 2+

35%

Sertãozinho U20 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Portuguesa U20 1+ goals

87%

Portuguesa U20 2+ goals

59%

Portuguesa U20 3+ goals

32%

Sertãozinho U20 1+ goals

66%

Sertãozinho U20 2+ goals

30%

Sertãozinho U20 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa U20 (draw refunded)

74%

Sertãozinho U20 (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa U20 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Sertãozinho U20 away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.96 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa U20 attack 2.06 + Sertãozinho U20 defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 2.01

Sertãozinho U20 attack 1.13 + Portuguesa U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Portuguesa U20 scores more

58%

level

21%

Sertãozinho U20 scores more

20%

Portuguesa U20 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Portuguesa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form

U20

WLLDW

U20

DWLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff