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Portuguesa U20 vs Ponte Preta U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Portuguesa U20
Portuguesa U20
Preview
18:00
Ponte Preta U20
Ponte Preta U20
7/31/2026Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round 9
49%
Portuguesa U20
model favours
49%24%27%

Portuguesa U20 and Ponte Preta U20 have never met before

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
56%
over 2.5 goals
57%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Portuguesa U2049%
×Draw24%
Ponte Preta U2027%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa U20
1.71
Ponte Preta U20
1.21

Portuguesa U20 creates 41% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 20 away

creates per match

Portuguesa U20
2.06
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

allows per match

Portuguesa U20
1.06
Ponte Preta U20
1.35

finishing

Portuguesa U20+0.00on par
Ponte Preta U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 56Under: 4456%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 57No: 4357%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa U20 ↓

Ponte Preta U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Portuguesa U20 or draw
73%
Portuguesa U20 or Ponte Preta U20
76%
Draw or Ponte Preta U20
51%

Winning margin

Portuguesa U20 wins by 2+
26%
Ponte Preta U20 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Portuguesa U20 1+ goals
82%
Portuguesa U20 2+ goals
51%
Portuguesa U20 3+ goals
24%
Ponte Preta U20 1+ goals
70%
Ponte Preta U20 2+ goals
34%
Ponte Preta U20 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa U20 (draw refunded)
64%
Ponte Preta U20 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa U20 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 1.06 · 17 matches

Ponte Preta U20 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa U20 attack 2.06 + Ponte Preta U20 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.71

Ponte Preta U20 attack 1.35 + Portuguesa U20 defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Portuguesa U20 scores more
49%
level
24%
Ponte Preta U20 scores more
27%

Portuguesa U20 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Portuguesa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
U20
WLLDW
U20
WLLDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portuguesa U20 face Ponte Preta U20 (Paulista - U20)

Paulista - U20 returns with Portuguesa U20 hosting Ponte Preta U20. Match starts July 31, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.