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Portuguesa FC vs Puerto Cabello — Primera División 2018

Portuguesa FC
Portuguesa FC
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Puerto Cabello
Puerto Cabello
2/9/2024Primera DivisiónPrimera División · Apertura - 2Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Portuguesa FC38%
×Draw29%
Puerto Cabello33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portuguesa FC
1.13
Puerto Cabello
1.03

Portuguesa FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 139 home / 143 away

creates per match

Portuguesa FC
1.10
Puerto Cabello
1.02

allows per match

Portuguesa FC
1.04
Puerto Cabello
1.16

finishing

Portuguesa FC+0.00on par
Puerto Cabello+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa FC ↓

Puerto Cabello →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Portuguesa FC or draw
67%
Portuguesa FC or Puerto Cabello
71%
Draw or Puerto Cabello
62%

Winning margin

Portuguesa FC wins by 2+
16%
Puerto Cabello wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Portuguesa FC 1+ goals
68%
Portuguesa FC 2+ goals
31%
Portuguesa FC 3+ goals
11%
Puerto Cabello 1+ goals
64%
Puerto Cabello 2+ goals
28%
Puerto Cabello 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)
54%
Puerto Cabello (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.04 · 139 matches

Puerto Cabello away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.16 · 143 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa FC attack 1.10 + Puerto Cabello defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.13

Puerto Cabello attack 1.02 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Portuguesa FC scores more
38%
level
29%
Puerto Cabello scores more
33%

Portuguesa FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Portuguesa FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División: Portuguesa FC 0–1 Puerto Cabello

Puerto Cabello beat Portuguesa FC 1-0 in Primera División on February 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico Rafael Calles Pinto in Guanare.