Portuguesa FC 1–2 Deportivo La Guaira

Portuguesa FC

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Deportivo La Guaira

J. Azocar 56'

K. Lamadrid 76'

J. Meza 3'

5/4/2025

Primera División · Apertura - Quadrangular - 1Estadio General José Antonio Páez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 139+ matches

Portuguesa FC36%

×Draw29%

Deportivo La Guaira35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Portuguesa FCExpected goals in this matchDeportivo La Guaira

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.13

Portuguesa FC

1.15

Deportivo La Guaira

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 139 home / 148 away

1.10

creates per match

1.22

1.04

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Portuguesa FC

1.10

Deportivo La Guaira

1.22

allows per match

Portuguesa FC

1.04

Deportivo La Guaira

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portuguesa FC+0.00on par

Deportivo La Guaira+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portuguesa FC ↓

Deportivo La Guaira →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Portuguesa FC or draw

65%

Portuguesa FC or Deportivo La Guaira

71%

Draw or Deportivo La Guaira

64%

Winning margin

Portuguesa FC wins by 2+

15%

Deportivo La Guaira wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Portuguesa FC 1+ goals

68%

Portuguesa FC 2+ goals

32%

Portuguesa FC 3+ goals

11%

Deportivo La Guaira 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo La Guaira 2+ goals

31%

Deportivo La Guaira 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Portuguesa FC (draw refunded)

51%

Deportivo La Guaira (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portuguesa FC at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.04 · 139 matches

Deportivo La Guaira away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.20 · 148 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portuguesa FC attack 1.10 + Deportivo La Guaira defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.15

Deportivo La Guaira attack 1.22 + Portuguesa FC defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Portuguesa FC scores more

36%

level

29%

Deportivo La Guaira scores more

35%

Portuguesa FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Portuguesa FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

J. Meza↳ A. Uribe

34'

38'

39'

45+10'

45+11'

46'

46'

J. Castellanos← J. Perdomo

56'

J. Azocar↳ C. Cermeno

67'

J. Marchan← C. Cermeno

67'

Y. Rivas← S. Castillo

73'

M. Gonzalez← J. Meza

76'

K. Lamadrid↳ J. Gutierrez

79'

Y. Escudero← K. Zuniga

79'

R. Febres← R. Chacon

80'

Y. Colmenarez← J. Azocar

81'

Y. Rivas

82'

J. Marchan

88'

R. Mendoza← A. Trujillo

Portuguesa

Deportivo

1

Lima

4

▼

Rivero

30

Peralta

20

A

Gutierrez

2

Penaranda

13

▼

Ibarra

24

▼

Perdomo

21

⚽

Lamadrid

7

⚽

▼

Meza

9

A

Uribe

31

▼

Castillo

1

Hernandez

3

Trejo

17

▼

Zuniga

4

Hoz

24

A

▼

Cermeno

6

▼

Trujillo

18

Montana

5

Soto

72

⚽

▼

Azocar

36

▼

Chacon

10

Lopez

Manager: Giancarlo Gregorio Maldonado Marrero

67'▲J. Marchan←▼C. Cermeno

79'▲Y. Escudero←▼K. Zuniga

79'▲R. Febres←▼R. Chacon

80'▲Y. Colmenarez←▼J. Azocar

88'▲R. Mendoza←▼A. Trujillo

Portuguesa FC substitutes

22Daza27Quero2Escudero13Cesar33Castro16Lucena15Ramunno8Marchan11Gomez30Mendoza19Febres7Colmenarez

Manager: Juan Domingo Tolisano

34'▲F. Flores←▼C. Rivero

46'▲C. Rojas←▼R. Ibarra

46'▲J. Castellanos←▼J. Perdomo

67'▲Y. Rivas←▼S. Castillo

73'▲M. Gonzalez←▼J. Meza

Deportivo La Guaira substitutes

12Schiavone19Ascanio3Rojas10Castellanos14Silva11Arias15Gonzalez6Flores70Caraballo22Sulbaran18Rivas16Pena