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Portugalete vs Leioa — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Portugalete
Portugalete
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Leioa
Leioa
11/15/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Estadio La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Portugalete51%
×Draw29%
Leioa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugalete
1.27
Leioa
0.68

Portugalete creates 87% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

creates per match

Portugalete
0.71
Leioa
0.64

allows per match

Portugalete
0.71
Leioa
1.82

finishing

Portugalete+0.00on par
Leioa+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugalete ↓

Leioa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Portugalete or draw
80%
Portugalete or Leioa
71%
Draw or Leioa
49%

Winning margin

Portugalete wins by 2+
24%
Leioa wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Portugalete 1+ goals
72%
Portugalete 2+ goals
36%
Portugalete 3+ goals
14%
Leioa 1+ goals
49%
Leioa 2+ goals
15%
Leioa 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Portugalete (draw refunded)
72%
Leioa (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugalete at home — creates 0.71, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

Leioa away — creates 0.64, concedes 1.82 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugalete attack 0.71 + Leioa defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.27

Leioa attack 0.64 + Portugalete defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Portugalete scores more
51%
level
29%
Leioa scores more
20%

Portugalete at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Portugalete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Portugalete 1–0 Leioa

Portugalete beat Leioa 1-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on November 15, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Florida in Portugalete.