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Portugalete vs Deusto — Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 2019

Portugalete
Portugalete
CANC
00:00
Deusto
Deusto
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 4Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 · Group 4 - 34Estadio La Florida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Portugalete52%
×Draw26%
Deusto22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugalete
1.54
Deusto
0.90

Portugalete creates 71% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 111 away

creates per match

Portugalete
1.77
Deusto
0.98

allows per match

Portugalete
0.81
Deusto
1.31

finishing

Portugalete+0.00on par
Deusto+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugalete ↓

Deusto →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Portugalete or draw
78%
Portugalete or Deusto
74%
Draw or Deusto
48%

Winning margin

Portugalete wins by 2+
27%
Deusto wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Portugalete 1+ goals
79%
Portugalete 2+ goals
45%
Portugalete 3+ goals
20%
Deusto 1+ goals
59%
Deusto 2+ goals
23%
Deusto 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Portugalete (draw refunded)
70%
Deusto (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugalete at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.81 · 100 matches

Deusto away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.31 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugalete attack 1.77 + Deusto defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.54

Deusto attack 0.98 + Portugalete defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Portugalete scores more
52%
level
26%
Deusto scores more
22%

Portugalete at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Portugalete will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portugalete face Deusto (Tercera División RFEF - Group 4)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 4 returns with Portugalete hosting Deusto. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Portugalete host Deusto at Estadio La Florida.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.