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Portugal W vs Northern Ireland W — World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe 2027

Portugal W
Portugal W
Preview
13:00
Northern Ireland W
Northern Ireland W
10/13/2026World Cup - Women - Qualification EuropeWorld Cup - Women - Qualification Europe · Semi-finals
Big match
78%
Portugal W
model favours
78%14%8%

Top-of-the-table clash — Portugal W 1 vs Northern Ireland W 3

brightest fact of this match

2–0
likely score
70%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Portugal W78%
×Draw14%
Northern Ireland W8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portugal W
2.83
Northern Ireland W
0.83

Portugal W creates 241% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Portugal W
3.67
Northern Ireland W
1.67

allows per match

Portugal W
0.00
Northern Ireland W
2.00

finishing

Portugal W+0.00on par
Northern Ireland W+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal W ↓

Northern Ireland W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Portugal W or draw
92%
Portugal W or Northern Ireland W
86%
Draw or Northern Ireland W
22%

Winning margin

Portugal W wins by 2+
58%
Northern Ireland W wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Portugal W 1+ goals
94%
Portugal W 2+ goals
77%
Portugal W 3+ goals
53%
Northern Ireland W 1+ goals
56%
Northern Ireland W 2+ goals
20%
Northern Ireland W 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Portugal W (draw refunded)
90%
Northern Ireland W (draw refunded)
10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal W at home — creates 3.67, concedes 0.00 · 3 matches

Northern Ireland W away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal W attack 3.67 + Northern Ireland W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.83

Northern Ireland W attack 1.67 + Portugal W defence 0.00 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Portugal W scores more
78%
level
14%
Northern Ireland W scores more
8%

Portugal W at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Portugal W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Portugal W and Northern Ireland W have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
W
LWWWW
W
LLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portugal W face Northern Ireland W (World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe)

World Cup - Women - Qualification Europe returns with Portugal W hosting Northern Ireland W. Match starts October 13, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.