Portugal 3–3 Spain: Result & Stats | World Cup

Portugal

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Spain

Cristiano Ronaldo 88', 44', 4' (pen)

Nacho 58'

Diego Costa 55', 24'

6/15/2018

World Cup · Group Stage - 1Olimpiyskiy Stadion Fisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Portugal47%

×Draw24%

Spain28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PortugalExpected goals in this matchSpain

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.21

Portugal

1.64

Spain

1.21

Portugal creates 36% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 7 away

2.56

creates per match

1.43

1.00

allows per match

0.71

creates per match

Portugal

2.56

Spain

1.43

allows per match

Portugal

1.00

Spain

0.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Portugal+0.00on par

Spain+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portugal ↓

Spain →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Portugal or draw

72%

Portugal or Spain

76%

Draw or Spain

53%

Winning margin

Portugal wins by 2+

25%

Spain wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Portugal 1+ goals

81%

Portugal 2+ goals

49%

Portugal 3+ goals

23%

Spain 1+ goals

70%

Spain 2+ goals

34%

Spain 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Portugal (draw refunded)

63%

Spain (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portugal at home — creates 2.56, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Spain away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portugal attack 2.56 + Spain defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

Spain attack 1.43 + Portugal defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Portugal scores more

47%

level

24%

Spain scores more

28%

Portugal at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Portugal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Cristiano Ronaldo

Portugal · F

9.6

Match Events

4'

Cristiano RonaldoPenalty

17'

Sergio Busquets

24'

Diego Costa

28'

Bruno Fernandes

44'

Cristiano Ronaldo↳ Gonçalo Guedes

55'

Diego Costa↳ Sergio Busquets

58'

Nacho

68'

João Mário← Bruno Fernandes

69'

Ricardo Quaresma← Bernardo Silva

70'

Thiago Alcântara← Andrés Iniesta

77'

Iago Aspas← Diego Costa

80'

André Silva← Gonçalo Guedes

86'

Lucas Vázquez← David Silva

88'

Cristiano Ronaldo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PortugalSpain

Overview

33%Possession67%

9Total Shots13

4Corners5

12Fouls10

Shots

9Total Shots13

3On Target6

3Off Target5

3Blocked2

3Inside Box9

6Outside Box4

Passing

33%Possession67%

372Total Passes759

307Accurate Passes700

83%Pass Accuracy92%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3