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Portsmouth vs Wolves — Championship 2025

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
Preview
18:45
Wolves
Wolves
4/6/2027ChampionshipChampionship · Round 41Fratton Park
41%
Wolves
model favours
31%28%41%

Wolves score first in only 15% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
under 2.5 goals
49%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Portsmouth31%
×Draw28%
Wolves41%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.10
Wolves
1.30

Wolves creates 18% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 19 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.04
Wolves
1.53

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.07
Wolves
1.16

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
59%
Portsmouth or Wolves
72%
Draw or Wolves
69%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
12%
Wolves wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
67%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
30%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
10%
Wolves 1+ goals
73%
Wolves 2+ goals
37%
Wolves 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
43%
Wolves (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.07 · 28 matches

Wolves away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.04 + Wolves defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.10

Wolves attack 1.53 + Portsmouth defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Portsmouth scores more
31%
level
28%
Wolves scores more
41%

Wolves at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Wolves win just 0% of their away games
  • 38% of Wolves’s goals come after the 75th minute
  • Portsmouth and Wolves have never met before

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Portsmouth
LWDWL
Wolves
DDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portsmouth face Wolves (Championship)

Championship returns with Portsmouth hosting Wolves. Match starts April 6, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Portsmouth host Wolves at Fratton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.