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Portsmouth vs West Ham — Championship 2025

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
Preview
19:45
West Ham
West Ham
11/24/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 17Fratton Park
35%
Portsmouth
model favours
35%32%32%

Even after scoring first, West Ham win only 44%

brightest fact of this match

0–0
likely score
72%
under 2.5 goals
36%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Portsmouth35%
×Draw32%
West Ham32%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
0.95
West Ham
0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 5 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.10
West Ham
0.80

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.00
West Ham
0.80

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
West Ham+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

West Ham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
68%
Portsmouth or West Ham
68%
Draw or West Ham
65%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
13%
West Ham wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
61%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
25%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
7%
West Ham 1+ goals
59%
West Ham 2+ goals
23%
West Ham 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
52%
West Ham (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

West Ham away — creates 0.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.10 + West Ham defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.95

West Ham attack 0.80 + Portsmouth defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Portsmouth scores more
35%
level
32%
West Ham scores more
32%

Portsmouth at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • West Ham win just 23% of their away games
  • 23% of West Ham’s goals come in the first 15 minutes
  • 32% of West Ham’s goals come after the 75th minute

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Portsmouth
LWDWL
Ham
WLLLW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Portsmouth host West Ham

November 24, 2026: Portsmouth take on West Ham in Championship. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Portsmouth host West Ham at Fratton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.