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Portsmouth vs Milton Keynes Dons — League One 2018

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Milton Keynes Dons
Milton Keynes Dons
2/25/2020League OneLeague One · Round 29Fratton Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Portsmouth47%
×Draw25%
Milton Keynes Dons28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.56
Milton Keynes Dons
1.14

Portsmouth creates 37% more chances

Season form · 137 home / 95 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.72
Milton Keynes Dons
1.27

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.01
Milton Keynes Dons
1.40

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
Milton Keynes Dons+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Milton Keynes Dons →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
72%
Portsmouth or Milton Keynes Dons
75%
Draw or Milton Keynes Dons
53%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
24%
Milton Keynes Dons wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
79%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
46%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
21%
Milton Keynes Dons 1+ goals
68%
Milton Keynes Dons 2+ goals
32%
Milton Keynes Dons 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
63%
Milton Keynes Dons (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.01 · 137 matches

Milton Keynes Dons away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.40 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.72 + Milton Keynes Dons defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.56

Milton Keynes Dons attack 1.27 + Portsmouth defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Portsmouth scores more
47%
level
25%
Milton Keynes Dons scores more
28%

Portsmouth at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Portsmouth vs Milton Keynes Dons

Portsmouth beat Milton Keynes Dons 3-1 in League One on February 25, 2020.

The match was played at Fratton Park in Portsmouth.