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Portsmouth vs Cardiff — Championship 2025

Portsmouth
Portsmouth
Preview
14:00
Cardiff
Cardiff
9/5/2026ChampionshipChampionship · Round 5Fratton Park
Big match
44%
Portsmouth
model favours
44%28%29%
1–1
likely score
58%
under 2.5 goals
47%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Portsmouth44%
×Draw28%
Cardiff29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Portsmouth
1.33
Cardiff
1.02

Portsmouth creates 30% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 61 away

creates per match

Portsmouth
1.10
Cardiff
1.03

allows per match

Portsmouth
1.00
Cardiff
1.56

finishing

Portsmouth+0.00on par
Cardiff+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Portsmouth ↓

Cardiff →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Portsmouth or draw
71%
Portsmouth or Cardiff
72%
Draw or Cardiff
56%

Winning margin

Portsmouth wins by 2+
20%
Cardiff wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Portsmouth 1+ goals
74%
Portsmouth 2+ goals
38%
Portsmouth 3+ goals
15%
Cardiff 1+ goals
64%
Cardiff 2+ goals
27%
Cardiff 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Portsmouth (draw refunded)
60%
Cardiff (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Portsmouth at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

Cardiff away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Portsmouth attack 1.10 + Cardiff defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.33

Cardiff attack 1.03 + Portsmouth defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Portsmouth scores more
44%
level
28%
Cardiff scores more
29%

Portsmouth at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Portsmouth will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Portsmouth
LWDWL
Cardiff
WLLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Portsmouth vs Cardiff — Match Preview

Portsmouth face Cardiff on September 5, 2026 in this Championship fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Portsmouth host Cardiff at Fratton Park.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.